Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 129,101
2 South Dakota 124,182
3 Rhode Island 113,635
4 Utah 111,848
5 Arizona 108,905
6 Tennessee 108,041
7 Wisconsin 103,853
8 Iowa 103,779
9 Oklahoma 103,463
10 Arkansas 103,069
11 Nebraska 100,933
12 Kansas 98,857
13 Alabama 97,399
14 Indiana 96,280
15 Mississippi 95,648
16 Idaho 93,463
17 Nevada 93,023
18 South Carolina 92,506
19 Wyoming 91,538
20 Illinois 91,430
21 Montana 90,699
22 Louisiana 89,789
23 Texas 87,736
24 Georgia 87,690
25 California 87,575
26 Kentucky 87,040
27 New Mexico 85,521
28 Florida 84,124
29 Delaware 84,080
30 Minnesota 83,493
31 New Jersey 82,899
32 Missouri 82,550
33 Massachusetts 79,999
34 Ohio 79,684
35 New York 77,843
36 North Carolina 77,724
37 Alaska 76,345
38 Connecticut 74,748
39 Colorado 71,542
40 West Virginia 70,541
41 Pennsylvania 69,528
42 Virginia 63,384
43 Michigan 62,697
44 Maryland 60,877
45 District of Columbia 54,598
46 New Hampshire 51,196
47 Washington 43,227
48 Puerto Rico 40,783
49 Oregon 35,346
50 Maine 31,288
51 Vermont 21,232
52 Hawaii 18,780

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 510
2 Kentucky 456
3 Texas 439
4 New Jersey 435
5 Arizona 433
6 New York 426
7 Arkansas 405
8 Rhode Island 401
9 Virginia 398
10 North Carolina 392
11 Oklahoma 371
12 Utah 359
13 Florida 358
14 Georgia 353
15 Delaware 323
16 Louisiana 317
17 Tennessee 311
18 Pennsylvania 297
19 Massachusetts 294
20 Montana 294
21 Alabama 287
22 New Hampshire 272
23 Ohio 265
24 Mississippi 263
25 Connecticut 258
26 California 250
27 West Virginia 244
28 Iowa 233
29 New Mexico 231
30 Kansas 226
31 Idaho 223
32 South Dakota 217
33 Alaska 216
34 Indiana 212
35 Nebraska 206
36 Illinois 203
37 Nevada 198
38 Wisconsin 188
39 District of Columbia 187
40 Colorado 185
41 Maryland 182
42 Missouri 168
43 Maine 158
44 Oregon 131
45 Minnesota 125
46 Michigan 122
47 Wyoming 112
48 Washington 111
49 Vermont 108
50 North Dakota 75
51 Puerto Rico 49
52 Hawaii 38

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,513
2 New York 2,312
3 Massachusetts 2,215
4 Mississippi 2,147
5 Rhode Island 2,146
6 South Dakota 2,067
7 Connecticut 2,062
8 Arizona 2,018
9 Louisiana 1,987
10 North Dakota 1,915
11 Alabama 1,839
12 Pennsylvania 1,789
13 Indiana 1,786
14 Illinois 1,734
15 Arkansas 1,722
16 New Mexico 1,660
17 Iowa 1,646
18 Michigan 1,603
19 Tennessee 1,569
20 South Carolina 1,522
21 Nevada 1,506
22 Kansas 1,477
23 Georgia 1,417
24 Texas 1,402
25 District of Columbia 1,378
26 Florida 1,321
27 Delaware 1,296
28 Missouri 1,270
29 Montana 1,236
30 Maryland 1,235
31 West Virginia 1,220
32 California 1,163
33 Wisconsin 1,155
34 Minnesota 1,136
35 Wyoming 1,117
36 Nebraska 1,087
37 Ohio 1,075
38 Colorado 1,021
39 Idaho 1,003
40 Oklahoma 997
41 North Carolina 985
42 Kentucky 979
43 New Hampshire 821
44 Virginia 815
45 Washington 617
46 Puerto Rico 595
47 Utah 553
48 Oregon 490
49 Maine 476
50 Alaska 367
51 Vermont 301
52 Hawaii 297

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alabama 33
2 Arizona 29
3 Ohio 25
4 Delaware 18
5 Mississippi 13
6 Wyoming 13
7 California 12
8 Kansas 12
9 Nevada 12
10 Tennessee 12
11 Georgia 11
12 Missouri 11
13 New Jersey 11
14 Oklahoma 11
15 Rhode Island 11
16 Texas 11
17 Arkansas 10
18 Massachusetts 10
19 New Mexico 10
20 Pennsylvania 10
21 West Virginia 10
22 Iowa 9
23 North Carolina 9
24 South Carolina 9
25 District of Columbia 8
26 Florida 8
27 New York 8
28 Indiana 7
29 Kentucky 7
30 South Dakota 7
31 Washington 7
32 Connecticut 6
33 Louisiana 6
34 Wisconsin 6
35 Illinois 5
36 Maryland 5
37 Michigan 5
38 Virginia 5
39 Nebraska 4
40 Utah 3
41 Colorado 2
42 Idaho 2
43 Minnesota 2
44 Montana 2
45 New Hampshire 2
46 North Dakota 2
47 Vermont 2
48 Hawaii 1
49 Maine 1
50 Oregon 1
51 Puerto Rico 1
52 Alaska 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 311,005 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 265,242 2 99
Bent Colorado 249,238 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 238,867 4 99
Lake Tennessee 236,032 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 125,740 226 92
Richland South Carolina 91,428 1284 59
York South Carolina 85,088 1605 48
Orange California 80,377 1832 41
Pierce Washington 40,383 2901 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 3 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 6,547 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,158 1901 39
Richland South Carolina 1,106 1966 37
Orange California 1,100 1972 37
York South Carolina 993 2123 32
Pierce Washington 556 2681 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons